The Economic Impact of Mass Deportation in California:
The Bay Area Council Economic Institute, in partnership with UC Merced, released a major report on June 17, 2025, detailing the economic consequences of mass deportations in California. Read the full report here.
The report “examines how shifting federal immigration enforcement policies and expanded immigration enforcement could impact California’s economy. With the nation’s largest state economy where immigrants comprise nearly one-third of the population, disruptions in California would reverberate nationwide. Drawing on economic data and stakeholder perspectives, the study analyzes the role undocumented immigrants play in the state and the potential consequences of mass deportation policies.”
As written from the report posted online here, “the following key insights, illustrate the potential economic effects on California:
What we stand to lose without California’s immigrant workforce:
• Of California’s 10.6 million immigrants, the study found that 2.28 million are undocumented representing one in five immigrants and 8% of all workers in California.
• Based on direct wage contributions alone, undocumented workers generate nearly 5% of California’s gross domestic product (GDP) – a figure that rises to nearly 9% when accounting for the broader ripple effects of their labor across the economy. Undocumented workers also contribute over $23 billion annually in local, state, and federal taxes.
Mass deportation would have uneven impacts across industry sectors:
• Over a quarter of the state’s agricultural workforce is undocumented, and nearly two-thirds are immigrants of any status. Without undocumented workers, GDP generated by California’s agriculture industry would contract by 14%.
• A mass deportation policy would also severely disrupt California’s construction industry, which already faces a major labor shortage and relies heavily on immigrant workers – 26% of whom are undocumented and 61% of whom are immigrants. Without undocumented workers, GDP generated by California’s construction industry would shrink by nearly 16%.
“Business and communities across the state are already facing challenges and economic costs due to increased immigration enforcement. There was broad agreement from business and other community leaders for enacting federal policies to provide legalization to undocumented immigrants.”