POLICY WATCH – August 2025

Policy Watch

Aug 21

In This Issue

In This Issue
- Two Reasons Why Americans Are Not Having Babies
- What is MASCOTS and Why You Need to Know About It
- More Fun Under the Sun- Spending on Outdoor Activities
- Upcoming Events
- Members in the News

As summer draws to a close and schools across the North Bay welcome students back, I am reminded of the significant demographic shifts affecting our region. Our population is aging, immigration is slowing, and the high cost of living is leading many to delay—or forgo—having children. These trends carry far-reaching implications—among them, the closure of our local schools.

In this issue, we share an opinion piece reflecting on why fewer people are choosing to have children and echo the author’s view that we must “design policies that foster a culture that puts the values of family first.” With thoughtful, supportive child care policies, we can make raising children more accessible and desirable—strengthening both our families and the communities we call home.

We also take a look at a new study/plan on how to improve mobility in the North Bay (MASCOTS) and learn how more Americans are spending on outdoor activities and how that trend can help the region.

Enjoy.

Best Regards,

Joanne

NBLC Work Plan Priority- Child Care:

Two Reasons Why Americans Are Not Having Babies:

Youyou Zhou, reporter at The Washington Post shares her opinion on why Americans are not having babies and gives us a look into how that could change with some policy and culture shifts in the US. She writes, “the Trump administration wants an American baby boom, but so far this ambition has been a bit of a bust. The much-hyped baby bonus — a proposal to give mothers $5,000 after they give birth — ended up becoming a restrictive investment account where funds are inaccessible until children reach 18 years old. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign promise to mandate IVF care appears to be sidelined.”

She continues, “the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that the United States reached its lowest fertility rate in history in 2024: Every American woman is now estimated to have 1.6 children during their lifetime, much lower than the 2.1 rate needed to keep population at its current level without immigration.

An analysis of birth rates nationally showed two forces are pushing Americans away from having children: a broad cultural shift away from traditional families and a lack of high-quality, affordable childcare and housing.”

The financial burden of raising children.

“A family with two working parents in 2024 needed to increase its income by almost 40 percent, about $26,900 extra per year, to maintain their standard of living after having their first child, according to an analysis of data from the Economic Policy Institute.

In the United States, a family of two would need to increase their income by 39 percent, for a total of $95,300 per year, to raise the first child. In Marin County, CA, a family of two would need to increase their income by 55 percent, for a total of $162,900 per year, to raise the first child. In Sonoma County, CA, a family of two would need to increase their income by 45 percent, for a total of $120,200 per year, to raise the first child. And, In Napa County, CA, a family of two would need to increase their income by 48 percent, for a total of $131,000 per year, to raise the first child.

That’s a tall order in the current economy and a stark increase from just a decade ago, when the Agriculture Department estimated that an average American family of two parents needed 24 percent additional income to raise one child. It matters because birth rates are lower in areas where raising children takes a bigger share of a family’s income. Policies that lower the financial burden for families — not just once, but consistently throughout a child’s life — are key.”

Ms. Zhou shares her research with us, “if encouraging Americans to have babies is a genuine policy goal of the Trump administration, it should look around to find what works. France offers an example. While France has also experienced a fertility decline in the past decade, it has slowed the decline more successfully than peer countries, including the United States. Despite the fact that France is less religious than such neighbors as Spain, Italy or Germany, it has topped the fertility rate among European peers for more than a decade.

France achieved that with policy measures that support families through every stage of a child’s growth including up to three years of parental leave and tax credits covering up to 85 percent of the cost of day care or nannies. Public preschools in France are free for kids from 3 to 6 years old. The French government gives monthly support to families with special needs through cash allowances, tax credits and subsidized services until children reach age 20.

Her point: “The point is not to exactly match the government-sponsored family support in France, but to design policies that foster a culture that puts the values of family first. The right policies can make childbearing more desirable. They can help to change culture and counter the trend in a secular world.”

Read the full story here

NBLC Work Plan Priority- Transportation/Mobility in the North Bay:

Marin-Sonoma Coordinated Transit Service Plan (MASCOTS):

Transportation and improved mobility in the North Bay is a priority focus area for NBLC because it directly impacts economic vitality, equity, and quality of life. Our region depends on safe, reliable, and efficient connections between communities, jobs, schools, and healthcare.

That is why we appreciate and support the MASCOTS plan. The Marin-Sonoma Coordinated Transit Service Plan (MASCOTS) is a collaborative project between Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and nine transit and funding agencies to create a more connected, frequent transit network.

It represents a long-overdue, comprehensive look at how SMART, Golden Gate Transit, and Sonoma County Transit can better align services and resources to meet current travel demand. The plan recognizes that travel patterns have shifted since the pandemic, that SMART has become the backbone of the Highway 101 corridor, and that schedules and connections must be improved to make transit more seamless and efficient.

By reducing duplication, coordinating schedules, and investing where ridership is strongest, the MASCOT plan will make transit more reliable, easier to use, and better connected to key destinations. This will not only improve mobility within and between Marin and Sonoma Counties but also strengthen our regional connections to San Francisco and the East Bay. We view this as a smart, forward-looking strategy that will help the North Bay achieve its goals for economic competitiveness, environmental sustainability, and equity.

Recent analysis from the MASCOTS study show that “The implementation of SMART has significantly reshaped mobility between Marin and Sonoma Counties. Since service began, more people are choosing transit in the Highway 101 Corridor. SMART has proven to be a faster, more reliable, and more frequent option than the parallel bus services during peak hours. As a result, SMART now carries a larger share of the travel market compared to Golden Gate Transit and Sonoma County Transit services.”

Key Findings by County from the Study

Sonoma
Transit service in Sonoma County’s Highway 101 corridor is characterized by duplication: SMART, GGT, and Sonoma County Transit routes overlap but operate without coordinated schedules. Travel times and fares vary between these providers, creating a fragmented experience for riders. Since SMART began service, it has largely replaced GGT Route 101 as the predominant choice for intra-Sonoma and Sonoma–Marin County trips—when the train is running. However, local bus services are not designed to directly connect with SMART, limiting its potential benefits. Commuter services to San Francisco remain productive, but targeted adjustments could further improve both efficiency and rider experience.

Marin
Highway 101 in Marin is currently overserved, with too many all-day bus routes carrying too few riders. This oversupply—particularly between San Rafael and Marin City—creates unnecessary rider confusion. While some schedule coordination exists, resources are still not deployed in ways that maximize benefits for riders. By contrast, GGT Route 101 demonstrates strong ridership between San Rafael and San Francisco, with demand sufficient to support more frequent service. Additionally, commuter-focused bus routes and ferries are effectively meeting peak directional demand into San Francisco.

“MASCOTS is focused on making travel more efficient between Sonoma and Marin counties, as well as to and from San Francisco. Transit riders can expect shorter travel times and cost savings thanks to frequent bus and SMART rail service, along with easy transfers along the U.S. 101 and SMART corridor.”

Please provide input by completing this survey before August 22 if you are a transit rider. Feel free to share. By completing the survey, you have an option to enter to win one of ten $50 gift cards. Your input will help shape the future of transit in our community.

NBLC Work Plan Priority- Economic Resiliency:

Credit Card Analysis Says More People are Spending on Outdoor Activities. That is a Good Trend for the North Bay:

Recent analysis from Bank of America Institute reveals that of the 6.7 million jobs that the U.S. is expected to add through 2033, about one in eight will be in the leisure and hospitality sector. This is one of the largest projected employment increases of all 17 major sectors, after professional business services and healthcare, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to Bank of America aggregated credit and debit card data, spending growth on outdoor recreation has been performing better than that of indoor recreation for the past six months.

With outdoor activities picking up in the summer months, spending growth at campsites reached the highest level since February 2022 — up 15.6% year-over-year. Interestingly, Gen X had the strongest spending growth year-to-date at campsites. Golf is also on the summer upswing, with spending up more than 80% from the 2019 average level. Gen X has been the primary driver of this growth, especially in the West. Plus, according to the National Golf Foundation, women and girls account for approximately 60% of the net gain in green grass golfers since 2019.

With our abundance of parks, trails, campsites, and golf courses, the North Bay is uniquely positioned to capture and sustain this growth, attracting both residents and visitors who value outdoor experiences. This momentum reinforces what we’ve always known: our natural environment is not only a source of pride, but also a driver of economic vitality.

Read the full story report here.

Upcoming Events:

7 Principles for Leading in the Age of AI- Wednesday, September 17, 8:00am-9:30am, Creekside Room, Dominican University of CA, 100 Magnolia Ave., San Rafael. $30 includes breakfast.

The latest AI wave isn't just a technological shift—it’s redefining leadership itself. As AI reshapes how work gets done and value is created, today’s leaders must evolve with it. That means understanding AI’s impact on people (employees, customers, and communities) and developing the mindsets and skillsets to lead through this transformation with courage and care. Register Here.

Save the Date: Thursday, October 16th, 8:30am-10:00am, via zoom: State of the North Bay Economic Conference. Back by Popular Demand is Jeff Bellisario, Executive Director Bay Area Council Economic Institute to present the North Bay Economic Report.

Registration for the 2025 California Economic Summit in Stockton October 21-23 is Now Open!

Hosted by California Forward (CA FWD) in partnership with the California Stewardship Network, this year’s Summit marks the 14th annual gathering of leaders from across industries, sectors, and regions who are working to catalyze a New California Economy.

The annual California Economic Summit is the place to participate in shared learning and engagement, celebrate successes across regions, catalyze action at the state and federal level, and ultimately work together to promote system change toward an economic model that is truly resilient, sustainable, and inclusive. NBLC is a member of CA Stewardship Network, and we hope you can attend this year’s summit.

Join us in shaping California’s economic future! Register here

Members in the News

Kaiser Vacaville Unveils Expanded Emergency Department

Kaiser Permanente Vacaville Medical Center had plenty to celebrate Wednesday as it unveiled a major expansion of its Emergency Department, marking a significant step forward in emergency and trauma care for Solano County and beyond.

College of Marin Community Update

A message from College of Marin President, Dr. Jonathan Eldridge marking a significant date in College of Marin’s institutional history, as we commemorate two remarkable milestones that illuminate both their journey and their resilience as an educational community.

SMART Helped Ease Traffic. Will a 30-year Bay Area Highway Project Ease More?

After 30 years, the project to widen Highway 101 in Marin and Sonoma counties is almost complete.

Providence Announces $5 Million Donation Toward New Santa Rosa Cardiology Center

Providence Santa Rosa Memorial Hospital Foundation has announced a multimillion-dollar donation to help establish a new cardiac hub within the Hansel Family Care Center, a medical office building across the street from the hospital.

NBLC Members Top the US News & World Report’s Best Hospitals Rankings

U.S. News & World Report has released its 2025-2026 Best Hospitals rankings, which includes more than a dozen in the North Bay including our members, MarinHealth, Kaiser Permanente, Providence, and Sutter Health!

Former Birkenstock Site in Novato Sold to Eames Institute for $36 Million

Petaluma-based Eames Institute, the new owners of the former Birkenstock campus, plans to launch an art and design museum there.

The LIME Foundation’s NextGen Trades Graduates Build Brighter Futures

Uplifting students and young people to greater heights is all in a day’s work at The LIME Foundation.

City Council OKs Grant to Burbank Housing to Purchase Affordable Housing

The Sonoma City Council unanimously authorized City Manager David Guhin to develop and execute an agreement with Burbank Housing, a North Bay nonprofit developer, to purchase and preserve 18 affordable housing units in the city.

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Joanne Webster