POLICY WATCH – June 2025
In This Issue
SMART initiative
Economic Impact of Mass Deportations
California State Budget Outlook- Analysis from the Legislative Analyst Office
Upcoming Events
Members in the New
There is no other way to say it; the last few weeks have been rough. Let us take a moment to acknowledge all that has happened since the last Policy Watch. At that time, our conversations centered on economic concerns, improving mobility in the North Bay and celebrating outstanding leadership. Today, we are faced with a very different tone and more troubling landscape — including reports of ICE raids in our communities, arrests, civil unrest, political violence, the tragic killings of public officials, and ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
These are deeply challenging times, marked by continued uncertainty and fear. Through it all, the North Bay Leadership Council will continue to do what we do best and remain steadfast in our mission: to promote sound public policy in the North Bay. We will continue to support each other, focusing on the most pressing priorities where we can have impact regionaly and bring together experts and thought leaders to keep you informed and prepared. We have weathered many challenges before, and we will meet this moment with the same determination and collaboration that define our region.
In this issue we will focus on the SMART initiative, the California State budget and a key findings in a study conducted by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute on the economic impact of mass deportations. I invite you to engage with the critical work underway—from advancing regional transportation to understanding the broader economic forces at play—as we continue building a stronger, more equitable future for the North Bay.
Best Regards,
Joanne
SMART Initiative:
As part of NBLC’s adopted 2025 workplan, I’m excited to share that I’ll be collaborating on the SMART Initiative—a 2026 voter-led campaign to reauthorize public funding for the SMART train and its multiuse pathway. I’m working closely with Suzanne Smith, former Executive Director of the Sonoma County Transportation Authority, and Mike Pickens of Operating Engineers Local 3, to prepare a robust campaign to renew the existing ¼-cent sales tax.
The momentum is strong: recent polling shows over 65% support for renewal, with overall public favorability toward SMART also at 65%. Since the last round of public polling, support has grown by 4% in both Sonoma and Marin counties. Among voters who have ridden SMART, support surges to 82%.
To ensure the most reliable path to the ballot, we are pursuing a voter-led initiative (VLI), which minimizes political and electoral risk and gives SMART the surest path to long-term sustainability. But before we get there, we must collect nearly 50,000 voter signatures. Signature gathering will begin in early July and will include both professional and volunteer circulators.
Many of you will recall NBLC’s role in the original SMART campaign, led in part by our own Cynthia Murray, which resulted in the successful 2008 ballot measure. That campaign promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, provide an alternative to driving, eliminate over 1.4 million car trips on Highway 101, and deliver a multi-use bike and pedestrian pathway. Today, SMART serves more than a million riders annually, offers free fares to youth and seniors, and plays a major role in reducing congestion along Highway 101. In the past year alone, ridership has grown by nearly 30%. SMART has made good on those promises—and we must ensure that this vital infrastructure remains protected and funded.
Importantly, this initiative does not raise taxes. It simply extends the existing funding source that has powered nearly two decades of clean, reliable transit and bike/ped pathways throughout the North Bay.
Without renewal, SMART’s current funding will expire—potentially leading to a complete shutdown of service by 2029. That would mean walking away from over $1 billion in infrastructure investments and abandoning the many riders, including youth, seniors, workers, and families—who rely on SMART each day.
Support for this campaign is broad and bipartisan, with backing from Senator Mike McGuire, Assemblymembers Damon Connolly and Chris Rogers, all ten county supervisors in Sonoma and Marin, labor unions, environmental organizations, employers, and thousands of SMART riders across the region, including me.
If you haven’t yet, please consider endorsing the campaign by sending an email to: info@thesmartinitiative.org
To contribute to the campaign, visit the website and donate here.
The Economic Impact of Mass Deportation in California:
The Bay Area Council Economic Institute, in partnership with UC Merced, released a major report on June 17, 2025, detailing the economic consequences of mass deportations in California. Read the full report here.
The report “examines how shifting federal immigration enforcement policies and expanded immigration enforcement could impact California’s economy. With the nation’s largest state economy where immigrants comprise nearly one-third of the population, disruptions in California would reverberate nationwide. Drawing on economic data and stakeholder perspectives, the study analyzes the role undocumented immigrants play in the state and the potential consequences of mass deportation policies.”
As written from the report posted online here, “the following key insights, illustrate the potential economic effects on California:
What we stand to lose without California’s immigrant workforce:
• Of California’s 10.6 million immigrants, the study found that 2.28 million are undocumented representing one in five immigrants and 8% of all workers in California.
• Based on direct wage contributions alone, undocumented workers generate nearly 5% of California’s gross domestic product (GDP) – a figure that rises to nearly 9% when accounting for the broader ripple effects of their labor across the economy. Undocumented workers also contribute over $23 billion annually in local, state, and federal taxes.
Mass deportation would have uneven impacts across industry sectors:
• Over a quarter of the state’s agricultural workforce is undocumented, and nearly two-thirds are immigrants of any status. Without undocumented workers, GDP generated by California’s agriculture industry would contract by 14%.
• A mass deportation policy would also severely disrupt California’s construction industry, which already faces a major labor shortage and relies heavily on immigrant workers – 26% of whom are undocumented and 61% of whom are immigrants. Without undocumented workers, GDP generated by California’s construction industry would shrink by nearly 16%.
“Business and communities across the state are already facing challenges and economic costs due to increased immigration enforcement. There was broad agreement from business and other community leaders for enacting federal policies to provide legalization to undocumented immigrants.”
California State Budget Outlook:
As leaders in the North Bay’s business community, it is critical for us to stay informed about the decisions being made at the state level, especially in a year when California is navigating a significant budget shortfall and making tough funding choices that directly affect our region.
At our June Board and General Membership meeting last week, we welcomed back Ann Hollingshead, Principal, Fiscal and Policy Analyst with the Legislative Analyst Office. Ann brings deep expertise in state fiscal policy and a clear, nonpartisan view of how this year’s budget decisions are shaping California’s economic future. Ann walked us through the key takeaways from the 2025–26 state budget, explained what it means for North Bay priorities like housing, infrastructure, education, and economic development, and what to expect in the months ahead.
Ann reported that for the third consecutive year, lawmakers are grappling with a budget deficit. If not for proactive decisions made last year, the shortfall would be even more severe. This ongoing budget challenge highlights a persistent structural imbalance between state spending and revenues. While the Legislature has previously managed deficits by scaling back one-time and temporary expenditures, the current situation demands more difficult and lasting choices.
To close the $14 billion budget gap outlined in the May Revision, the state employed a variety of strategies, most of which were spending-related. The largest share came from reductions, including cuts and changes to critical programs such as Medi-Cal and funding for homelessness services. Other notable approaches included cost shifts and fund shifts, which moved existing obligations or resources across different areas of the budget to free up funds. The state also relied on delaying certain expenditures to ease immediate fiscal pressure. Only a small portion of the solution came from revenue-related measures, reflecting an approach focused more on reallocation and restraint than on raising new income. Overall, the Governor’s plan prioritized managing the shortfall through internal adjustments rather than new funding sources.
Not surprisingly, legislative leaders offered a counterproposal that restores or preserves several key services aimed at supporting the most vulnerable Californians. As CalMatters reported on June 11, the Legislature’s budget at least partially reinstates funding that the Governor had proposed to cut. This includes $500 million in homelessness grants to local governments—half of what they had received in recent years—along with $500 million in the state’s Low Income Housing Tax Credit program. Lawmakers also rejected the Governor’s proposal to cut base funding for the University of California and California State University systems. Additionally, the Legislature included $100 million to begin implementing Proposition 36, an anti-crime measure approved by voters last year despite the Governor’s opposition.
Looking ahead, Ann shared that the Senate and Assembly are currently in negotiations with the Governor to reach a final agreement on the state budget. The Governor has until Friday, June 27, to sign, veto, or issue line-item vetoes on the budget bill. Further budget-related legislation is expected in August and September, especially in response to potential changes in federal law and funding that could significantly impact California’s fiscal outlook. Stay tuned- we’ll keep you informed as this process unfolds.
You can read the report here.
Upcoming Events:
Save the Date: Thursday, October 16th, 8:30am-10:00am, via zoom: State of the North Bay Economic Conference
Members in the News
How PG&E Plans to Fix Local Bottlenecks for Electrical Connections
There has been a bottleneck for new or significantly upgraded electrical connections to commercial and residential developments in certain areas of the North Bay in the past few years.
SMART Tax Renewal Campaign Proposed by High-Powered Group
A former transportation official, a union director and a business leader in the North Bay have formed a group — that is strongly supported by local elected officials — seeking to renew a critical sales tax for the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit through a simple-majority vote.
Sonoma Clean Power Spearheads Next-Gen Geothermal Power at The Geysers with Early Results
California’s goal of producing more round-the-clock power from The Geysers may be in reach, as a demonstration there of next-generation geothermal energy technology has become operational and is said to be generating promising early results.
Redwood Credit Union welcomes Steve Greig as Senior Vice President of Marketing and Communications
Steve Greig has joined Redwood Credit Union (RCU) as senior vice president of marketing and communications. In his role, Greig leads the marketing and communications teams, driving strategic campaigns that amplify RCU’s products and services, while ensuring consistent messaging across corporate and member communications, public relations, marketing, and social media.
Buck Institute Team is Named Semifinalist of XPRIZE Healthspan
The Buck Institute for Research on Aging is proud to announce that a team of Buck scientists, in collaboration with colleagues at Hospital-University Institute HealthAge at the University of Toulouse, has been named a semifinalist for the 7-year, $101 million XPRIZE Healthspan. The global competition is intended to revolutionize how we approach human aging.
First 5 Moving Santa Rosa Offices
First 5 Sonoma County is moving its offices to central Santa Rosa.
North Bay Business Journal Wins 4 Honors at California Journalism Awards
North Bay Business Journal has won four honors at the latest California Journalism Awards.
Kaiser Permanente Santa Rosa Voted Best in Sonoma County
Newsweek 2025 Best Maternity Hospital, 7 category wins in Bohemian Best of the North Bay 2025, Geriatric Surgery Verification in Comprehensive Excellence, and KC Nate named Forty Under 40.
College of Marin Gets Grant to Help Ease Nursing Shortages
North Bay Business Journal celebrates extraordinary women who are transforming the region through leadership and an infusion of new funding will help expand College of Marin's nursing program next year.
North Bay Leadership Council’s Members Recognized Among 18 Local Women Professionals Transforming the Region in 2025
North Bay Business Journal celebrates extraordinary women who are transforming the region through leadership and community impact. Here’s what you need to know about them.